How These Stories Come to Be Written

How These Stories Come to Be Written
Journaling at a remote site at Five Rivers Environmental Center
Journaling at a remote site at Five Rivers Environmental Center

This diary entry is a bit off the main trail because it tells the story of how these diary entries come to be. Each week, usually on Thursday, Ali, Dan, Babak, and David meet online to review progress. While all four of us have advanced graduate training in system dynamics modeling, we have somewhat specialized roles in this group. Ali is our conceptual and modeling leader. Dan looks after public health matters and has a sharp eye for good writing and details. Babak takes the lead on the website and follow-up modeling issues, while also thinking about social media. It falls to David to take long walks in the morning and devise a narrative approach.

Many mornings I find myself talking a long slow walk alone on remote trails at Five Rivers Environmental Center. I think I must look a curious site strolling these back trails with notebook and pen in hand. This morning, I was shocked awake when a third small group passed me (I never see groups this early in the morning), and they too had notebooks and pens in hand. They also had large binoculars and cameras with long lenses. It turns out that today is one of those days when bird watchers compete to log in 100 distinct species in a single day. So diligent groups start early.

I often pause at a favorite spot to reflect and write in my notebook. It is just off the main access road where the Tall Pine and North Loop trails converge with Larch Lane. This morning I was led to reflect on what an enjoyable role I have been given within this great group of colleagues. Oh, to give Thanks for such a marvelous spring morning—even in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This Story Does NOT Have a Lesson

Rather, this story gives Thanks for a group of friends who enjoy working together.

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Technical Modeler's Notes

Ali's CORONA1 Model

You will need to download a free version of the simulation software VENSIMPLE to open and run this model.

Diaries During Lockdown

“Diaries During Lockdown” is a network of professionally trained mathematical modelers (along with some of their friends and colleagues) who are using the tools of system dynamics and systems thinking to explain many of the complex choices facing individuals, organizations, and governments as we collectively grapple with the COVID19 pandemic. The apparent voice of this story is that of David Andersen, a retired Professor of System Dynamics and Public Policy who lives on New Fadum Farm. This voice is actually the synthesis of a number of different analysts and writers.

MORE DIARIES

Google Map route to David’s vaccination appointment on February 15 in Adams, New York

Will the Pandemic really be over in 44 days?

Deborah is scheduled for her first vaccine shot in nine days on January 25 and David is next on February 15. If the second shots come 2 weeks later, does that mean that the pandemic will be over for them by March 1, that is, 44 days from when I am writing this note? Surely not! It’s more complicated than that.

Read More »

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